New conflict analysis 'Ethiopia'

This could have hardly published more timely: last week Ethiopia’s prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn stepped down due to the ongoing violent clashes in the country, this week IES researcher Dr Jan Claudius Völkel published an updated conflict analysis on the East African regional hegemon for the Bundeszentrale für Politische Bildung (Federal Agency for Civic Education, in German language). Ethiopia’s image is dominated by impressive economic growth rates on the one hand, but harsh political leadership by the government on the other hand. This “development dictatorship” leaves no room for political dissent in a democratic framework, which has provoked violent clashes between protesting citizens and security forces. Since 2015, more than 11,000 people reportedly have been arrested and an estimated 1,000 killed. The prime minister’s resignation last week should meanwhile not be seen as a fundamental game changer in Ethiopia’s domestic policies, as the security and secret services as main power holders in Ethiopia will most likely continue to rule with an iron fist.